Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.343104 1.424571 1.509617 1.605243 1.710039 1.821690 1.950033
2026-01-18 1.217945 1.332500 1.457736 1.605669 1.776752 1.969758 2.205929
2026-01-25 1.153647 1.289860 1.443733 1.632144 1.859012 2.126536 2.470704
2026-02-01 1.074524 1.220203 1.388709 1.600569 1.863539 2.184388 2.613861
2026-02-08 1.003360 1.153394 1.330220 1.557320 1.846288 2.209010 2.711213
2026-02-15 0.957081 1.112677 1.299278 1.543780 1.862350 2.273403 2.861899
2026-02-22 0.924289 1.085926 1.282966 1.546105 1.896870 2.361844 3.050174
2026-03-01 0.883377 1.046603 1.248202 1.521606 1.892933 2.396330 3.162952
2026-03-08 0.838931 1.000627 1.202443 1.479573 1.861754 2.389567 3.212724
2026-03-15 0.810773 0.974087 1.180264 1.467274 1.869828 2.437442 3.346937
2026-03-22 0.799235 0.968278 1.184522 1.490374 1.927990 2.560537 3.607955
2026-03-29 0.780671 0.952356 1.174405 1.492695 1.955873 2.639807 3.805415
2026-04-05 0.767574 0.943843 1.174720 1.510847 2.009792 2.765497 4.099229
2026-04-12 0.748656 0.926840 1.162771 1.510900 2.036713 2.851247 4.334953
2026-04-19 0.739410 0.922385 1.167640 1.535098 2.101295 3.001720 4.704711
2026-04-26 0.713217 0.893772 1.137567 1.506231 2.081255 3.010685 4.810636
2026-05-03 0.685133 0.861669 1.101424 1.466652 2.041897 2.983933 4.843897
2026-05-10 0.667295 0.843204 1.083943 1.454252 2.045126 3.029936 5.026225
2026-05-17 0.654980 0.832012 1.076369 1.456382 2.071743 3.118282 5.305864
2026-05-24 0.635936 0.810767 1.053522 1.433935 2.056354 3.130161 5.424939
2026-05-31 0.613057 0.783505 1.021117 1.395389 2.012066 3.086392 5.417520
2026-06-07 0.599196 0.768714 1.006506 1.384102 2.013182 3.126269 5.601498
2026-06-14 0.595245 0.767934 1.012410 1.405299 2.070776 3.276232 6.060017